Del
Williamson is president of GE Power Systems Global Sales Operation. In
this position, he is responsible for the commercial activities for GE
Power Systems products and services throughout the world.
Williamson joined
General Electric in 1959 and has since held a variety of management positions
for the Steam Turbine, Gas Turbine, Distribution Transformer and Nuclear
Energy divisions. In 1980, he became general manager for the Battery Business
Department and in 1983 moved to London as vice president, Middle East
and Africa Business Division.
In 1986, Williamson
returned to the United States as vice president of marketing and sales
for the Power Generation business. In 1993, he moved to Hong Kong where
he was president of GE Power Systems Asia-Europe-Africa. He was appointed
to his current position in September 1997.
W-G: One class
of 2001 thesis held that 90 percent of current capacity would be replaced
by 2015. Please comment on that theory?
First, it's important
to recognize that with the unprecedented number of capacity additions
over the last three years in the U. S. -- the average age of power generation
equipment has naturally decreased. Even given that fact, however, the
new capacity added only represents about 150 of the 900 GigaWatts of installed
capacity. The result is that 750GW of our installed capacity is approaching
an average age of 30 years!
Looking out ten years,
that indicates most of the equipment currently operating will be close
to what is normally considered retirement age. That picture is a bit deceptive,
however, because much of the capacity gap will be offset by upgrades,
efficiency improvements and other technological enhancements that will
extend the life of today's equipment. When all of this is taken into consideration,
the 90% figure would seem rather high.
If I were to give
a "best guess" on what percentage of the current capacity will
require replacement by 2015, I would place it in the 50-60% range.
W-G: World-Generation
charts a rebound of up to 155 merchant GWs between 2006-2012; please comment.
Those projections
would seem to be in the ballpark. After 2006 we would expect to see additional
capacity requirements to come back to previous levels -- which was in
the range of 85-95 GigaWatts per year. Around the world you can probably
expect an annual growth rate of 3-4% each year.
W-G: Please
update GE's forecasts for new capacity in Mexico, Latin America, Europe
and Asia?
When you look at Mexico
that is clearly a place where we see some growth potential for hydro and
combined cycle. In terms of the rest of Latin America the prospects for
power generation growth in places like Brazil, Argentina and other countries
in the region are, at least for the very near future, weak.
In Europe we see steady
but marginal growth opportunities. The markets in Spain and Italy are
certainly active and the markets in both Eastern Europe and Russia look
encouraging.
Finally, looking at
Asia, there is an interesting mix of growth opportunities. Korea certainly
will be an area with potential for growth and in Taiwan there will be
bidding for 4000 MW of new combined cycle generation this spring. The
most significant opportunity is in China - a market with huge potential.
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