Before 1997, worldwide trade and investment
were growing at double-digit annual rates. Global foreign direct investment
was increasing by 20 percent a year between 1986 and 1995. U. S. exports
and imports have grown to make up about 25 percent of our economy, up
from about 17 percent in 1985. But all this impressive growth stopped
in 1998.
The total cost of the crisis last year was estimated
by the U. N. Conference on Trade and Development at $260 billion-equal
to about 1 percent of global output.
Ex-Im Bank took rapid and effective action as
soon as the nature and scope of the Asian crisis became evident. The crisis,
the credit crunch, the effects on trade, and their impact on millions
of people, have made Ex-IM Bank's mission more important than ever.
That mission is to support the export of goods
and services to challenging markets for which commercial financing is
limited or unavailable, and to help provide a level playing field for
U. S. businesses to compete in the global market.
In the area of project finance, Ex-IM Bank has
supported 26 major infrastructure projects in the last five years, with
a total cost of approximately $25 billion.
Many countries that Ex-IM Bank is currently considering
may restructure their power sector and privatize their national utilities.
Although Ex-IM Bank encourages countries to privatize when the time is
appropriate, we have concerns about the creditworthiness of the newly
privatized companies, and the stability of the regime for payment of power.
Ex-IM Bank is willing to be an active participant in discussions with
local governments to achieve a workable and financeable arrangement for
all parties. However, countries, may not always want to hear that privatization
is not a "quick fix,"but rather an endeavor that requires time
and careful planning.
We know that countries will recover, but we need
a recovery that can be sustained for long-term development. To do that,
we need appropriate reforms. In the project finance area, there are now
a number of challenges that we believe are worth addressing. One of the
most difficult concerns U. S. dollar financing of infrastructure projects,
which only earn local currency. Inadequate local capital markets, with
limited financing resources, and the unwillingness of international lenders
to cover soft currencies, are the principal reasons that local currency
financing was never seriously explored for the bulk of the IPP projects.
The reality is that no one anticipated Asia's recent economic downturn.
Undertaking a sensitivity analysis with a 30-percent currency devaluation
seemed conservative; little did we know.
To address this problem, we have been exploring
the possibility of providing support for local currency transactions.
We are now working with other U. S. government agencies to determine the
cost of guaranteeing loans in local currencies. Having at least a portion
of the financing in the local currency of a power plant would relieve
the burden on the country and increase the likelihood that the debt will
be repaid.
Trade is vital to both the developing world
and continued American growth. Trade has never been more important to
the U. S. economy. U. S. exports increased 10 fold between 1973 and 1997.
The U. S. population represents just 4 percent of the world's people,
but with the recent surge in our equity markets, the U. S. may have at
least 25 percent of the world's wealth. Yet, in the next millennium, virtually
all of the world's population growth and much of its productivity growth
will occur in the developing world. We need to help the developing world
recover with appropriate reforms for long-term growth in order to build
future markets for U. S. goods and services, and to bring prosperity to
more of the world's people.
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